Check heat risk by postcode. The UK recorded 40.3°C in July 2022 - the highest temperature in national records. LocalRisk uses Met Office UKCP18 climate projections to show projected extreme heat days for 1.8 million UK postcodes - alongside flood, air quality and subsidence risk.
Yes. In July 2022 the UK recorded 40.3°C for the first time, triggering the Met Office's first red extreme heat warning, with close to 3,000 heat-related deaths in England that summer. Met Office and World Weather Attribution research finds the chance of exceeding 40°C is now more than 20 times higher than in the 1960s, with heatwaves projected to occur every year by mid-century.
UKCP18 is the Met Office Hadley Centre's UK Climate Projections dataset, modelling future temperature, rainfall and sea level under different greenhouse gas scenarios to 2100. LocalRisk displays the RCP8.5 high-emissions scenario at 12km resolution, showing how many days above 25°C each UK area is likely to see in 2021-2040 versus a 1981-2000 baseline. RCP8.5 is the standard scenario used in UK planning.
Southern and south-eastern England face the biggest projected temperature increases. Greater London, the South East and East Anglia are expected to see the most additional hot days. Dense urban areas can be 2-5°C warmer than surrounding countryside due to the urban heat island effect. Northern Scotland, uplands and coastal areas face lower absolute risk but still see meaningful warming compared to historical averages.
Increasingly, yes. Hot, dry summers drive subsidence - the ABI reported a record £307 million in domestic subsidence claims in 2025, after the UK's hottest summer on record. Overheating in poorly ventilated homes is becoming a concern for buyers, and the forthcoming Future Homes Standard will require new builds to address it.
The Heat Health Alert system runs from June to September in England, operated by the Met Office and UK Health Security Agency. It has four levels: green (no alert), yellow (vulnerable groups at risk), amber (wider health service impacts), and red (significant risk to life). The first red alert was issued during the July 2022 heatwave.
Flats are the most exposed, especially top-floor units and those with communal heating systems piping hot water year-round. Research for the Greater London Authority found up to 67.9% of London homes may be at high overheating risk (GLA/CIBSE, 2022). Smaller homes, over-occupied properties, and modern well-insulated buildings without adequate ventilation are also more vulnerable.
LocalRisk displays Met Office UKCP18 climate projections - the RCP8.5 high-emissions scenario at 12km resolution. Figures are the 50th-percentile (median) projection for 2021-2040 compared to a 1981-2000 baseline. These are probabilistic projections with a wide range of modelled outcomes; results would be lower under lower-emissions scenarios. Data is at council level and shown as comparative bands across the UK.