LIVERPOOL CLIMATE INSIGHTS
15 June 2026 - LocalRisk
Liverpool records modelled PM2.5 of 6.69 µg/m³ - among the lowest readings of any comparable English city, below Manchester (7.71), Birmingham (7.89), Leeds and Cambridge. Yet 11.8% of the city's postcodes fall within Environment Agency high flood zones, and the highest-risk outcodes (L14 Dovecot, L15 Wavertree, L27 Netherley) sit several miles inland on tributary catchments, not on the Mersey waterfront.
Liverpool air quality (PM2.5 6.69 µg/m³) is below Manchester and Birmingham. Flood risk concentrated inland on tributaries (L14, L15, L27), not Mersey wate
Liverpool records lower modelled PM2.5 (6.69 µg/m³) than Manchester (7.71), Birmingham (7.89), Leeds (7.4) or Cambridge (7.4). Yet 11.8% of the city's 10,626 postcodes sit within Environment Agency high flood zones - and the high-risk postcodes are not strung along the Mersey waterfront. They sit several miles inland, in outcodes like L14 Dovecot, L15 Wavertree and L27 Netherley, following small watercourses draining off the inland ridge towards the river. Coastal erosion exposure - which no inland English city shares - is concentrated separately around the L3 waterfront and the L19 estuary frontage at Garston and Grassendale. Combining postcode-level flood data, NCERM coastal data, Defra air monitoring, BGS geology and Met Office projections is what reveals patterns like this.
Liverpool's modelled PM2.5 of 6.69 µg/m³ (2024 annual mean, Defra UK-AIR data) is among the lowest readings of any comparable English city in our analysis. Newcastle (6.2) and Bristol (6.6) sit marginally lower, but Liverpool ranks below Manchester (7.71), Birmingham (7.89), Leeds (7.4), Cambridge (7.4) and Brighton (6.7).
| City | PM2.5 (µg/m³, 2024 annual mean) | |---|---| | Birmingham | 7.89 | | Manchester | 7.71 | | Leeds | 7.4 | | Cambridge | 7.4 | | Brighton | 6.7 | | Liverpool | 6.69 | | Bristol | 6.6 | | Newcastle | 6.2 |
_Source: Defra UK-AIR PM2.5 modelled data (2024 annual mean)._
For a city with Liverpool's industrial and port heritage, that reading lands lower than most assumptions. Coastal exposure to prevailing south-westerly Atlantic winds plausibly contributes to dispersion of urban emissions rather than letting them pool, alongside the routing of major motorway corridors away from the city centre. All UK urban areas remain above the WHO PM2.5 guideline of 5 µg/m³, but all sit well within the UK legal annual mean limit of 20 µg/m³. The air quality guide covers what these levels mean for individual postcodes.
Of Liverpool's 10,626 postcodes, 1,249 (11.8%) fall within Environment Agency high flood zones, with a further 1,033 (9.7%) at medium. Of 37,673 assessed properties, 5,259 carry a high risk designation. That overall share is close to Manchester (10.2%) and below Newcastle (15.7%), Leeds (13.8%) or Bristol (29.8%).
| City | High flood risk % | |---|---| | Bristol | 29.8% | | Cambridge | 23.9% | | Newcastle | 15.7% | | Leeds | 13.8% | | Brighton | 12.4% | | Liverpool | 11.8% | | Manchester | 10.2% |
_Source: Environment Agency (NaFRA2). The EA assigns each postcode the highest risk band of any property within it._
The geographic distribution is the more interesting story. The worst-affected outcodes are not on the Mersey waterfront - they are inland catchments draining off the Liverpool sandstone ridge:
| Outcode | Area | High flood % | Coastal postcodes | |---|---|---|---| | L14 | Dovecot | 24.8% | 0 | | L15 | Wavertree | 20.2% | 0 | | L27 | Netherley | 19.2% | 0 | | L12 | West Derby | 18.2% | 0 | | L4 | Walton / Anfield | 17.9% | 0 | | L6 | Kensington | 15.1% | 0 | | L13 | Stoneycroft / Tuebrook | 15.1% | 0 | | L19 | Aigburth / Grassendale | 12.4% | 10 | | L3 | City centre waterfront | 9.0% | 114 | | L17 | Sefton Park | 6.0% | 0 | | L18 | Calderstones / Mossley Hill | 10.4% | 0 |
_Source: LocalRisk analysis of EA NaFRA2 data, aggregated to outcode level._
L14, L15 and L27 sit several miles east of the river, on the upper reaches of small watercourses draining inland Knowsley and east Liverpool. These watercourses can overflow during heavy rainfall as part of the wider catchment response, distinct from any tidal Mersey signal. L3 - Pier Head, dockland and waterfront - records a more moderate 9% high flood share, with coastal erosion the dominant risk there.
The southern residential ridge is generally lower risk than the inland catchments to the east, though not uniformly so. L17 Sefton Park sits at 6.0% high flood share, among the lowest in the city. L18 Calderstones and Mossley Hill is higher, at 10.4%, close to Manchester's citywide average. These addresses sit on the elevated Permo-Triassic Sherwood Sandstone outcrop, which generally drains freely, though L18's figure shows this isn't uniform across the whole area.
355 Liverpool postcodes (3.3%) fall within NCERM (National Coastal Erosion Risk Mapping) high or higher bands. The concentration is the L3 waterfront (Pier Head, Albert Dock, Stanley Dock - 114 coastal postcodes recorded against this outcode) and the L19 estuary frontage at Garston, Grassendale and Otterspool.
This is the data point that distinguishes Liverpool from comparable inland English cities. Manchester, Birmingham, Leeds and Cambridge have zero NCERM coastal exposure. Liverpool's NCERM bands reflect the Mersey estuary frontage under NCERM's long-term shoreline modelling. For the heavily engineered central waterfront, the bands represent modelled long-term planning horizons and historical reclamation context rather than active cliff retreat at the dock walls.
The coastal erosion guide covers what these bands mean and how NCERM scoring works.
Met Office 1991-2020 station data for Crosby (the standard reference station for Liverpool, on the Mersey-estuary coast) puts Liverpool's annual rainfall at approximately 820mm; annual sunshine is around 1,500 hours, based on the Met Office regional average for the Merseyside coast. That places Liverpool below Manchester for rainfall (~850mm) but above Leeds, Newcastle and Cambridge.
| City | Annual rainfall (mm) | Annual sunshine (hours) | |---|---|---| | Brighton | 799 | 1,687 | | Liverpool | ~820 | ~1,500 | | Bristol | 782 | 1,487 | | Manchester | ~850 | ~1,385 | | Leeds | ~660 | ~1,350 | | Newcastle | 650 | 1,333 | | Cambridge | 548 | 1,494 |
_Source: Met Office 1991-2020 station normals._
Liverpool recorded 4.3 days per year above 25°C across the 2023-2025 period (ERA5 reanalysis): 3 in 2023, 1 in 2024 and 9 in 2025. That places Liverpool below Manchester (7.0) and Leeds (7.3), and well below Cambridge (21.0) or Bristol (12.3).
| City | Observed days >25°C/yr (2023-2025) | UKCP18 projected days >25°C/yr (2021-2040, RCP8.5, 50th pct) | |---|---|---| | Cambridge | 21.0 | 37 | | Bristol | 12.3 | 24 | | Birmingham | 9.7 | 26 | | Manchester | 7.0 | 18 | | Leeds | 7.3 | 18 | | Liverpool | 4.3 | 17 | | Brighton | 4.7 | 19 | | Newcastle | 2.3 | 7 |
_Sources: Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (observed); Met Office UKCP18 RCP8.5 50th percentile (projection)._
Met Office UKCP18 projections put Liverpool at around 17 days above 25°C as a central estimate for the 2021-2040 period - roughly four times the recent observed average. These are probabilistic projections - the 50th percentile is a central estimate, the full range of modelled outcomes is wide, and outcomes would be lower under lower emissions scenarios. Liverpool's Mersey-estuary location moderates summer maximums - coastal cities consistently record fewer extreme hot days than inland cities at the same latitude.
Subsidence happens in Liverpool as it does in every UK city - but the causes are not the same as in London or Cambridge. The dominant national driver of residential subsidence claims is shrink-swell clay, where clay-rich soils expand and contract with moisture changes. Liverpool sits on Permo-Triassic Sherwood Sandstone overlain in places by glacial till, and the British Geological Survey shrink-swell screening assessment flags 0% of Liverpool postcodes as probable or possible for shrink-swell. By that specific national measure, Liverpool is at the lower end of the distribution.
That does not mean Liverpool properties are free of ground-movement risk. The BGS shrink-swell dataset is a screening layer, not an exhaustive subsidence audit. Other potential causes of ground movement - made ground in former dockland and industrial areas, historic mine workings on the edges of the city, tree-root influence on clay-rich glacial till lenses, drainage failures and localised cellar or tunnel cavities - are not captured in shrink-swell screening and would need property-specific investigation. The subsidence guide explains what shrink-swell screening does and does not cover.
Liverpool records 13.6% of land within 200m of postcode centroids classified as green space - below Manchester (16.2%), Leeds (16.4%), Bristol (21.1%) and Newcastle (21.5%). Sefton Park, Calderstones Park, Stanley Park and Princes Park anchor the city's green provision, with the Mersey corridor at Otterspool the main south-bank green link. Distribution is uneven - L17, L18 and L25 score high, inner-east outcodes like L6 and L7 score lower.
Flood risk is the primary consideration in inland east Liverpool. Postcodes in L14 (Dovecot), L15 (Wavertree), L27 (Netherley), L12 (West Derby) and L4 (Walton/Anfield) carry above-average exposure - between 17% and 25% of postcodes in EA high zones. The risk source is small inland watercourses, not the Mersey. Higher-lying residential areas generally carry lower flood risk: L17 Sefton Park (6.0%) and L25 Gateacre and Woolton (6.9%) are among the lowest in the city. L18 Calderstones and Mossley Hill is a partial exception at 10.4%, close to Manchester's citywide average.
Coastal erosion is the distinctive consideration for properties on the Mersey frontage - principally L3 (Pier Head and the dock estate) and L19 (Garston, Grassendale and Otterspool). For the heavily engineered central waterfront, the practical horizon relates to shoreline management planning over decades, not imminent cliff retreat.
Air quality is a less significant concern than in Manchester or Birmingham, but local hotspots exist near the M62, M57 and the inner ring road in L3 and L1.
Subsidence from shrink-swell clay - the dominant national driver of residential subsidence claims - is not flagged by the BGS screening dataset across Liverpool, but other ground-movement causes (made ground, historic mine workings on the city's edges, drainage failures) sit outside that screening and would be picked up by property-specific searches.
Heat is moderate today and projected to rise from a recent observed average of 4.3 days above 25°C to approximately 17 days as a central UKCP18 estimate for 2021-2040.
Check any Liverpool postcode at localrisk.co.uk for a full six-risk breakdown.
You can check flood, heat, air quality, coastal erosion, subsidence and green space risk for any Liverpool postcode - and any UK postcode - free at localrisk.co.uk. Liverpool's full council breakdown is at localrisk.co.uk/council/liverpool.
Environment Agency flood zone and surface water risk data (NaFRA2); National Coastal Erosion Risk Mapping (NCERM 2018-2105); Defra UK-AIR PM2.5 modelled data (2024 annual mean); British Geological Survey shrink-swell clay risk assessment; Met Office 1991-2020 station normals (Crosby station for rainfall; Crosby does not report sunshine data, so the sunshine figure is a Met Office regional average for the Merseyside coast); Open-Meteo Historical Weather Archive (ERA5 reanalysis, ECMWF) for 2023-2025 observed heat days; Met Office UKCP18 climate projections (2021-2040 period, RCP8.5, 50th percentile); Ordnance Survey land cover data (2023). Analysis by LocalRisk. _Methodology: Annual rainfall uses the Met Office 1991-2020 Crosby station normal (~820mm). Crosby does not report sunshine data; the ~1,500 hours figure is a Met Office regional average for the Merseyside coast, not a Crosby station reading. Hot-day counts above 25°C use ERA5 reanalysis for 2023-2025. Climate projections use Met Office UKCP18 (RCP8.5, 50th percentile, 2021-2040); the 50th percentile is a central estimate within that scenario, and outcomes under lower emissions would be less severe. The EA assigns each postcode the highest risk band of any property within it._
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Climate risk varies sharply between Liverpool postcodes. Central addresses by district: