Data methodology
Official UK datasets translated into plain, postcode-level risk bands. Transparent methods, updated regularly. Covering 1.8 million postcodes across England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland.
UK climate risk data is public - but fragmented across the Environment Agency, Defra, the Met Office, and the British Geological Survey. LocalRisk brings these official datasets together and translates them into clear, postcode-level risk bands for everyday decisions like buying, renting, or insuring a home.
Shows long-term annual flooding probability combining river, sea, and surface water flooding. In England, we count properties in each postcode falling into High, Medium, or Low risk zones from Environment Agency data. A single high-risk property can place an entire postcode in that band, so the label is a screening indicator rather than a count of affected homes. For Wales, we use NRW national flood zone classifications. For Scotland, SEPA does not publish postcode-level flood data - we derive it by spatially querying SEPA's published flood extent polygons (river, coastal, and surface water) against each postcode centroid using a 25-metre buffer. The highest likelihood band found becomes the postcode's band. For property-specific detail in Scotland, check SEPA's flood maps directly.
Bands: Higher (more than once every 30 years, ≥3.3% annual chance), Medium (once every 30-100 years), Lower (once every 100-1,000 years), Very Low (less than once every 1,000 years or outside modelled flood zones).
Long-term probability only. Property elevation, drainage, and defences not included. Scotland and Wales results are area-level indicators derived from postcode centroids, not address-level data.
Counts projected days per year above 25°C - the threshold for indoor overheating risk under CIBSE TM52 guidance. Source: Met Office UKCP18 at 12km resolution, aggregated to council level. We show the median (50th percentile) for the 2021-2040 near-term period as a central planning estimate.
We use the RCP8.5 high-emissions scenario because UK property risk assessment conventionally plans against a high-emissions future - not because it is the most likely outcome, but to avoid underestimating long-term exposure. Outcomes would be materially lower under lower-emissions scenarios.
Bands: Higher (31+ hot days/year), Medium (23-30 hot days/year), Lower (0-22 hot days/year). Thresholds based on the statistical distribution of projected values across all UK councils.
Climate projection, not a forecast. Urban Heat Island effects (often ~2-5°C in dense urban areas) are not explicitly modelled in these regional projections.
Long-term PM₂.₅ exposure at council level using Defra UK-AIR population-weighted modelled pollution data (2024). We rank each council's annual average concentration against all UK councils and assign bands by percentile position.
Bands: Higher (top 30% most polluted councils), Medium (middle 40%), Lower (cleanest 30%). WHO annual guideline is 5 µg/m³.
Council-level averages smooth out neighbourhood-level variation.
Assesses ground movement from clay shrink-swell under future climate conditions. We combine British Geological Survey soil composition data at 1km grid resolution with BGS GeoClimate UKCP18 projections at 2km grid resolution modelling how soil moisture will change through the 2021-2040 near-term period. Bands map directly to BGS shrink-swell classifications.
Bands: Higher (high shrink-swell, clay-rich), Medium (moderate shrink-swell, mixed soils), Lower (low shrink-swell, sandy/chalky).
Based on soil composition, not claims history. England and Wales only.
Assesses long-term shoreline retreat risk. For England and Wales: EA National Coastal Erosion Risk Mapping (NCERM 2024), modelling shoreline change over 20, 50, and 100-year horizons. For Scotland: NatureScot Dynamic Coast future erosion extents.
Bands: Higher (fast erosion rate), Medium (moderate erosion rate), Lower (slow or negligible), Very Low (stable coastline or inland postcode).
Coastal and near-coastal postcodes only. Inland postcodes show Very Low.
Historical weather data comes from ERA5, a global climate reanalysis dataset produced by ECMWF, accessed via the Open-Meteo Historical Weather API. Temperature and soil moisture use ERA5-Land at ~9km resolution; precipitation and wind use the ERA5 atmospheric model at ~25km. Postcode pages show the most recent 3 complete calendar years; council area pages show the WMO standard 30-year climate normal (1991-2020).
LocalRisk provides indicative postcode-level information to raise awareness of environmental and climate risks. It does not constitute financial advice, an insurance assessment, or a substitute for professional property surveys.
Future climate risk figures are indicative and based on official UK projections (Met Office UKCP18, RCP8.5 high-emissions scenario). Heat figures represent the 2021-2040 period average. Outcomes under lower-emissions scenarios would be materially lower; long-term projections (2050s+) show greater uncertainty.
Always verify your property using official sources like Environment Agency flood maps or via a qualified surveyor for formal decisions.
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