LA5 0RJ - Flood, Heat, Air & Subsidence Risk - Carnforth (LA5)

Lancaster, Carnforth (LA5)

Climate risk summary for LA5 0RJ

LA5 0RJ in Carnforth (LA5) has a Very low flood risk - EA NaFRA2 data records no properties in a flood risk zone in this postcode. Heat risk is Lower, with a median (50th percentile) of 8 days above 25°C per year, averaged over the 2021-2040 period under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario (Met Office UKCP18). Air quality is Low at PM2.5 5.3 μg/m³, above the WHO annual guideline of 5 μg/m³ (Defra UK-AIR). Ground conditions are Low risk, with Limestone geology; shrink-swell risk is classed as improbable (BGS GeoClimate).

• Flood: EA NaFRA2: no properties at flood risk in this postcode.
• Heat: Projected 8 days above 25°C per year, 2021-2040 average (Met Office UKCP18, 50th percentile under RCP8.5, 12 km grid - postcodes within the same grid cell share this value).
• Air quality: PM2.5 5.3 µg/m³ - above the WHO annual guideline of 5 µg/m³ (Defra UK-AIR PCM model, council-level average - every postcode in this council shows this value).
• Ground: BGS data: Limestone geology. Shrink-swell risk classed as improbable (British Geological Survey).
• Green space: 100% of households here have accessible green space within a 15-minute walk (the government's Environmental Improvement Plan standard), and 6% have a park or green space within a 200m walk of their door - below the England median (Defra, 2025).

What is the flood risk in LA5 0RJ?

Flood risk at LA5 0RJ is rated Very Low, based on Environment Agency NaFRA2 modelling.

Environment Agency flood zone data shows very low flood risk for LA5 0RJ in Carnforth (LA5). EA NaFRA2 data shows no properties at flood risk in this postcode. The band reflects the highest flood risk within the postcode; some properties within this postcode may face little or no direct flood risk. For a specific property, a conveyancing search will confirm the exact flood zone position.

How is the air quality in LA5 0RJ?

Air quality at LA5 0RJ is rated Low, based on Defra UK-AIR annual mean PM2.5 data. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) comes primarily from road traffic, industry, and domestic burning. Long-term exposure above the WHO guideline of 5 µg/m³ is linked to respiratory and cardiovascular health risks. Buyers and renters in higher air quality risk areas may wish to consider whether the property is near busy roads or industrial sources.

Is subsidence a risk at LA5 0RJ?

British Geological Survey data classes the underlying soil at LA5 0RJ as Limestone, with shrink-swell hazard rated improbable (subsidence risk band: Low). A structural survey is the reliable way to assess ground conditions for a specific property.

Where does this data come from?

This LocalRisk report for LA5 0RJ draws on four official UK open data sources: Environment Agency NaFRA2 flood modelling, Met Office UKCP18 climate projections, Defra UK-AIR PM2.5 monitoring, and British Geological Survey GeoClimate subsidence mapping. Risk ratings are a screening tool, complementing - not replacing - the searches and surveys ordered as part of a property transaction. Data covers Lancaster and is updated as new official datasets are published.

About the Lancaster area

Lancaster has a coastal and river-valley setting on Morecambe Bay with surrounding uplands and experiences cool, wet winters and mild summers, influenced by Irish Sea weather systems and rising ground inland.

Climate risk can change street by street, so it is worth checking neighbouring postcodes too. The full risk report for LA5 0AA is at localrisk.co.uk/postcode/LA50AA, and you can compare LA5 0RJ side by side with any UK postcode at localrisk.co.uk/compare.