Tewkesbury, Innsworth (GL3)
Heat risk is Medium, with a median (50th percentile) of 30 days above 25°C per year, averaged over the 2021-2040 period under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario (Met Office UKCP18). Air quality is Medium at PM2.5 6.3 μg/m³, above the WHO annual guideline of 5 μg/m³ (Defra UK-AIR). Ground conditions are Low risk, with Outwash Sand And Outwash Gravel geology; shrink-swell risk is classed as improbable (BGS GeoSure).
Heat risk at GL3 1AP is rated Medium, reflecting Met Office UKCP18 climate projections (50th percentile) for this area, averaged over the 2021-2040 period under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. These are probabilistic projections - the 50th percentile is the central estimate within RCP8.5; the full range of modelled outcomes is wide and lower emissions scenarios would produce lower figures. Higher summer temperatures increase cooling energy costs, affect comfort in poorly insulated or south-facing properties, and can accelerate shrinkage in clay soils beneath foundations. Properties built before 1980 without cavity wall insulation are typically most affected.
Air quality at GL3 1AP is rated Medium, based on Defra UK-AIR annual mean PM2.5 data. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) comes primarily from road traffic, industry, and domestic burning. Long-term exposure above the WHO guideline of 5 µg/m³ is linked to respiratory and cardiovascular health risks. Buyers and renters in higher air quality risk areas may wish to consider whether the property is near busy roads or industrial sources.
BGS GeoSure data classes the underlying soil at GL3 1AP as Outwash Sand And Outwash Gravel, with shrink-swell hazard rated improbable (subsidence risk band: Low). Soil type and shrink-swell behaviour drive subsidence claims following dry summers; recent ABI data shows insurer payouts rose sharply after the 2022 and 2025 hot summers. A structural survey is the reliable way to assess ground risk for a specific property.
This LocalRisk report for GL3 1AP draws on four official UK open data sources: Environment Agency NaFRA2 flood modelling, Met Office UKCP18 climate projections, Defra UK-AIR PM2.5 monitoring, and British Geological Survey GeoSure subsidence mapping. Risk ratings are a screening tool, complementing - not replacing - the searches and surveys ordered as part of a property transaction. Data covers Tewkesbury and is updated as new official datasets are published.
Tewkesbury has a low-lying market town and rural district setting at the confluence of the Rivers Severn and Avon, with Bredon Hill rising to the north-east, and experiences cool, wet winters and warm summers, shaped by floodplain geography and lowland terrain.
Practical check: 30 hot days are projected (UKCP18 50th percentile, 2021-2040 average under RCP8.5) - check which rooms face south or west and whether the property has cross-ventilation or external shading. These are postcode-level indicators - conditions vary between individual properties.
Climate risk can change street by street, so it is worth checking neighbouring postcodes too. The full risk report for GL3 1AA is at localrisk.co.uk/postcode/GL31AA, and you can compare GL3 1AP side by side with any UK postcode at localrisk.co.uk/compare.